Harga minyak

Harga baru petrol & diesel hanya akan di umumkan pada 30 September, sehari sebelum Hari Raya. Takkan lah tak ada simpati pada orang ramai sikit pun. Apalah salahnya beri penurunan tu awal sikit supaya dapatlah rakyat Malaysia ni yang nak balik kampung tu ada extra money dalam poket, meriah lah sikit raya.

Bagi pada malam raya, orang semua dah pun balik kampung...

Jadilah kerajaan yang prihatin, barulah orang nak sokong tapi kalau turun pun janganlah setakat 15 sen sebab harga minyak dunia dah turun dibawah USD100/tong. Banyak tu turun berbanding masa announce naik dulu harganya USD136/tong.

Sekurang-kurangnya turunlah kepada RM2/liter untuk petrol. (Anggaran saya dalam artikel yang lebih awal)

Oil Price nears USD100 per barrel

Global Crude Oil Price is nearing USD100/barrel, but when will Malaysian government revise our retail petrol and diesel prices?

We are paying a premium for our petrol and diesel, meaning that we are subsidizing Petronas to make a higher profit and in turn pay higher dividend to the government and then the government can spend on mega projects among their own cronies of contractors and suppliers.

I wrote several articles on this issue:

• July 16 Petroleum profit
• July 24 Inflation rate 7.7%
• July 25 Petrol Price
• July 30 Oil Price Below USD121/barrel
• Aug 15 Oil Price Below USD113/barrel
• Aug 21 Retail Petrol Price

Based on my calculation our retail petrol price should be:
136-101=35; 25.74% drop; therefore RM3.00-25.74% = RM2.23/litre
(USD136/barrel; current price USD101/barrel; actual costs of petrol RM3/litre)

My calculation was based on the government's claim at the time when they increase the price of petrol to RM2.70/litre they gave a discount 30 sen off from the actual costs of the petrol (RM3.00/litre). And the price was increased when the global crude oil price was at USD136/barrel.

Therefore based on my simple & stupid calculation oil price should be at RM2.23 or RM1.93/litre after a 30 sen discount. Thus we are only 1 sen higher than before the hike in June. So all along actually we are not really subsidized instead we are paying higher premium.

So ask Pak Lah bila nak buat announcement to cut the price?

Bila harga petrol nak turun?

Harga dagangan minyak mentah dunia dah turun lagi sehingga dibawah paras USD107.oo. Tapi bila pula harga runcit petrol dan diesel Malaysia akan diturunkan. Takkan nak tunggu Hujung tahun atau hujung bulan saja.

Sampai bila rakyat Malaysia kena bayar premium untuk harga runcit petrol dan diesel. Bukan kami menerima subsidi tapi sebaliknya sekarang ini kerajaan yang meraih subsidi.

Pak Lah dan penasihat ekonomi dah buat kesilapan besar kepada rakyat Malaysia kerana tergesa-gesa menaikkan harga petrol sehingga 78sen seliter secara mendadak. Sepatutnya di naikkan secara berperingkat, bagi mengelakkan implikasi inflasi; kesannya, tambang pengangkutan meningkat, perbelanjaan meningkat, harga barang keperluan juga meningkat, semuanya bertambah mahal, sehingga kadar inflasi bulan Julai mencecah lebih 8%.

Kos dan harga yang telah meningkat ini tidak boleh diturunkan lagi, kami rakyat Malaysia dah terperangkap pada paras harga tinggi yang takkan kembali murah.

Apakah Kerajaan tidak memikirkan kesan jangka panjang semasa membuat keputusan yang berkaitan ekonomi? Adakah pandangan pakar ekonomi telah di rujuk? siapakah pakar ekonomi itu, si Menantu tu walau ada ijazah ekonomi tapi kalau setakat tahu teori sahaja apa guna. Rujuklah pakar yang lebih berpengalaman...

Harga Petrol Kekal!

Shahrir kata harga petrol tidak akan dikaji semula sehingga hujung tahun. Ini bermakna rakyat Malaysia membayar premium atau berlebihan untuk harga petrol. Rujuk pada artikel yang saya tulis sebelum ini mengenai harga petrol.

Beberapa hari lepas Perdana Menteri kata akan meurunkan harga petrol mengikut harga pasaran semasa dalam masa terdekat. Tiba-tiba Menteri pulak kata tidak akan diubah sehingga hujung tahun. Sekejap kata akan dikaji setiap bulan, kemudian setuju kaji dua kali sebulan, sekarang tidak akan dikaji. Siapa yang lebih berkuasa sekarang ini, Perdana Menteri atau Menteri Pengguna? Bolehkah dipercayai kerajaan sebegini? Cakap berbelit-belit atau sengaja nak simpan strategi sebelum hari mengundi di Permatang Pauh.

Mana prinsip kerajaan kita ini? Menteri-menteri apa nak kisah harga minyak, kereta kerajaan sediakan, minyak kerajaan bayar, bahkan kereta juga ada pemandunya, yang susah kita rakyat Malaysia ini yang tidak mendapat faedah seperti Menteri dan pegawai tinggi kerajaan yang mewah dengan duit titik peluh rakyat, lihat sajalah apa yang terbongkar di Terengganu - kos penyelenggaraan kereta sehingga beratus ribu, itu belum lagi ambil kira bayaran penggunaan petrol...

Retail Petrol Price

The global Crude oil price are now trading between USD112 to USD114 per barrel. The basis for the Malaysian retail petrol and diesel prices were calculated when the crude oil price was at USD136 per barrel.

Based on my simple and stupid calculation:

Crude oil price at USD136 = retail petrol price RM2.70,

Therefore, at USD114; 136-114=22; 22/136=16.18%;

2.7-16.18% = 2.7-0.44 = 2.26; price of retail petrol should be RM2.26/litre.

At USD112; 136-112=24; 24/136=17.65%

2.7-17.65% = 2.7-0.48 = 2.22: price of retail petrol should be RM2.22/litre.

The government should reduce the retail petrol and diesel prices immediately before the by-election to gain support, lets not wait until September 1st.

Oil Price below USD113

Crude oil price is now below USD113 per barrel, Malaysian are now paying a high premium for our retail petrol and diesel prices. As i mentioned in my earlier blog we were given 30 sen discount when Crude Oil Price was above USD136 per barrel. Now at USD112 we are subsidizing Petronas instead of govt subsidizing us.

Why wait until 1st of September?

When the govt decided to hike the retail price by 41% and 63% for petrol and diesel respectively, they never wait until the end of the month, but when they want to reduce it, they squeeze us as much as they can!

Anyway, the damage has been done, with the drastic and huge increase, the increase on several expenses like food, cost of transport is now irreversible. No way the retailers, food sellers, transport operators will be willing to reduce their charges. Inflation will remain high...

If the govt has been very discreet and tactful when they decides the quantum of increase of retail petrol and diesel price, we would not suffer this much.

Oil price below USD121pb

Global Crude Oil Price traded lower at USD121 per barrel. This figure is way below the USD136 per barrel price when the BN government decided to hike the retail petrol price to RM2.70. Pak Lah said at RM2.70, the government is actually giving a discount of 30 sen to the actual cost of petrol price.

Well, that was at USD136 per barrel, now the price has gone down to below USD121, a drop of about USD15 per barrel or about 11% decline. So, how much discount are we getting now 20 sen? What if the price drop further below USD100 per barrel, will the government announced a new retail petrol price? Earlier Pak Lah had said that there will be no more changes in petrol price for the year!

Or else Pak Lah must announce more goodies when he tabled the Malaysian 2009 Budget next month. Much and long awaited lower income tax for individuals (no reviews for several years already), higher rebate for purchases of books etc.

Petrol Price

I was wondering, the government said that the current price of petrol in Malaysia at RM2.70 is after a discount of 30 sen, and that pricing was set when the global crude oil was trading at USD136 per barrel, now that the crude oil price is down to USD125 per barrel;

• Are we getting a discount or are we paying a premium for our petrol?
• Will the government reduce the petrol and diesel prices if the global crude oil goes lower?
• Why do we need to pay our petrol based on global commodity trading price?

Petronas is own by the government and the oil should be directly own by the government.

In a recent forum among corporate leaders organised by Bloomberg, Datuk Idris Jala (MAS) - based on his previous experience in multinational Petroleum company, told the attendees that the actual cost for producing oil is only around USD30-USD40 per barrel, the rest are trade margin. If this is the situation why do we need to trade or pricing based on global petrol trading price, since the petrol were sold domestically. In my opinion only the portion for export should be based on commodity trading price.

The purpose of commodity trading is to replace barter trade. Barter trade and commodity trading involves international trade, whereas for domestic consumption should be exempted from following the international trading price. Please correct me on this if I am wrong.

Or is it just to give Petronas huge profit from the pricing, then gives some dividend back to the government from the profit, but at the same time we as Malaysian citizen was unwittingly taxed when we buy petrol and contribute to the profit of Petronas and paying dividend to the government.

Inflation Rate 7.7%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the inflation rate jumped sharply 7.7%, doubled from may CPI of 3.8% and a 27 seven year record high, higher than market forecast of 6.74%. I expect the inflation is expected to remain high in July and probably the rest of the year. In July further increase in the electricity tariff will continue push the index at the current level.

Previously our CPI is just recording below 3.8% while other countries are already in the 6-11% hike. In June; China (7.1%), Singapore (7.5%), Hong Kong (6.1%), Philippines (11.4%), Thailand (8.9%), Indonesia (11%).

Crude Oil prices last night drop to USD124 per barrel after recording the high of USD147 per barrel last week. Malaysia hiked the petrol and diesel price when the Oil prices was trading at USD136 per barrel.

Tomorrow Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will hold a monthly monetary meeting and market are expecting a review on the interest rates. Will BNM increase the interest rates from currently at 3.5% to 3.75%? However, the current inflation is not due to supply-demand factor but more of cost push factor.

Will we suffer as much as in 1998?

Malaysian "Economy"

I am pleased to refer you back to my earlier blog (dated 16 June: Economic Impact on Politic); the possibility that some politician linked business especially in the construction industry will suffer and "gulung tikar" due to higher costs of building materials, diesel and petrol. Well after less than 10 days of the above article, Pak Lah pumped in RM30bil into the 9th Malaysian Plan, but cut spending on opposition held State (see my blog dated 27 June: RM30bil for 9MP). All in the name of helping economic growth. I am sure my readers are intelligent enough to link the two articles above and to read between the lines.

Sometimes I wonder, which are the government's priority, is it the statistics (economic growth) or the welfare of the Malaysian. The government is trying so hard to keep our economic figure rosy and good, very adamant that GDP growth will remain above certain numbers, previously above 6%, now due to economic pressure revised to 5%.

On the other hand, if you ask businessmen or the people on the street, everybody are saying that the economy is bad and they are feeling the pain and the pressure, prices are increasing, expenses budgeoning etc.

Even if we compare the inflationary rates with the region, how is it that our CPI is recording 3.8% in May compared to China 7.7%, Singapore 7.5%, Hong Kong 5.7%, Philippines 9.6%, Thailand 7.6% and Indonesia 10.3%.

Just to keep our figure nice, the rakyat has to suffer. Even China currently the biggest importer of oil is selling the petrol at USD0.85 per litre or RM2.80 while Malaysia an oil producing nation is selling petrol to our own rakyat at RM2.70 per litre just 10sen difference between major oil importer and oil producing nation! How's that?

Malaysian Economy

The sky is the limit? It seems that the soaring prices 0f global crude oil price don't have a limit. Just a couple of years ago it was just around USD30 per barrel, now it is lingering at USD130 per barrel a difference of USD100 per barrel. How high will it go?

The economic cycle this time around is much more extreme than the Asian Financial Crisis, 10 years ago - human greed was being alleged as the main culprit. But this time around, all element of disaster, nature and human greed is taking part to create havoc. Started with the US sub-prime crisis, followed by collapse of several Financial giants, series of interest rates reduction, weakening dollars...

At the same time the crude oil prices increased, blaming on demands from emerging nations like China and India, but why so sudden increase. Speculation was also to be blame, greed for higher prices prompted traders to put price higher even though OPEC had increase their production.

Now, several disasters are wrecking several major food producing countries. Flood, drought, earthquake, cyclone, all the nature elements are destroying paddy fields, soy bean, poultries etc. Thus demand for oil also increase due to these phenomenon. Food are getting expensive and several countries is already facing food crisis. Philippines had shortage of rice, China earthquake affected high percentages of their population, Laos and Vietnam's paddy field submerged in flood water.

Inflation is imminent to the global economy, but Malaysia has been recording a very low inflation statistics, it is about time we look at our calculation and our subsidy policies. Are Malaysian to be spoon fed for the rest of our lives? Malaysian has been living in an unrealistic scenarios for a very long time, our economy figures did not really shows the true picture of our current situation. And for the rest our live, we have been sweetened by subsidies and rosy statistics - shows that our population and our nation are doing well.

So what are the implication; complacency. We always thought that we are rich with natural resources and will always survive, but the question is what have we done to ensure our survival. Nothing.

Look at Singapore, they don't have the natural resources, but they had the will to survive by taking advantage of the industries where the neighboring countries neglected. Their bio-technology research are more advance than ours, while we have all the resources like palm oil, rubber, petroleum etc.

Are we still going to cry due to the higher fuel price, something should be done. I am not going to recommend taking public transport, cos Malaysia's public transport really sucks! Roads and transport infrastuctures are haywired. Not enough parking at Monorails, LRT & Komuter stations. Security? Very doubtful. Then these facilities is not extended to some areas, especially the areas where high number of lower income group dwells.

Even in the heart of KL, parking is very scarce, even open air parking are charging as high as RM15-20 per day.

Did the government really understand the rakyat, the People are now well educated, we are no longer in the era of our forefathers where they are easily deceived. That is the reason why BN lose rakyat support. Ignorance & arrogance is not a nice word but I can't think of any better words...