Monday, November 10, 2008

Malaysian Economic outlook

Can Malaysia withstand the global economic slowdown? The probabilities is yes but with lots of cuts and bruises. Malaysia is fundamentally strong or probably seen to be strong - if the statistics produced by the government is accurate and genuine.

As a country rich with our own natural resources we are less dependent on other countries but i have to stress not totally independent, we still rely heavily on foreign trade, especially with the US and the Asean countries. Based on the current statistics our major export is to USA, Singapore and Japan. All these countries are suffering economic recession. The latest statistics also shows that the our export is declining while import increased.

The weakening of the economy had pressured the price of commodities lower; crude oil back to the level more than 18 months ago, palm oil is now going lower than RM1,400/ton after enjoying as high as RM4,400/ton, and rubber is back to its previous level. All the above were the major contributor to our export statistic.

The main export item, electronic and electrical goods had been suffering a low demand for quite a while. The main importer of Malaysian E&E, the US are facing economic recession and demand for such goods will not improve although the festive season is just around the corner.

Malaysian monetary policymaker had been very brave by not increasing the interest rates when the inflation rates soared to record high despite other countries adjusting their rates higher. By now those countries had to re-adjust their rates when the economy come tumbling down.

Malaysia will be affected indirectly by the slowdown in global economy; the weakening export, shrinking in commodity prices, slower foreign investment, weakening stock-market sentiment and economic slowdown in neighboring countries.

Right now Malaysia had to depend largely on domestic consumption. To encourage more domestic spending at the expense of reducing rakyat's savings!

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